Politics
Homophones, Plurals and Language ‘Rulescucks’ Are Roiling Prediction Markets
Prediction markets’ push to turn messy language into binary bets is forcing platforms into increasingly arbitrary, code-friendly rulebooks that undermine their claims to objective truth.
CFTC Forms New Task Force for Crypto, AI, and Prediction Markets
The CFTC launched an Innovation Task Force covering crypto, AI, and prediction markets. Michael J. Passalacqua will lead the new unit under Chairman Michael S. Selig. The task force will work with the Innovation Advisory Committee and coordinate with agencies, including the SEC.
Georgia’s 50% Trap: Pricing Runoff Risk in the 2026 Ossoff Race
Georgia’s 2026 Senate race is less a binary contest over who leads today than a structural puzzle over whether Jon Ossoff can clear the state’s 50% threshold.
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada’s ban on Kalshi’s sports and election contracts underscores an escalating clash between state gambling regulators and federal derivatives authorities.
How ‘Irrelevant’ Prediction Market Detail Led to Death Threats
Fast-growing prediction markets are exposing a core weakness as disputed contracts and after-the-fact trading create incentives to distort information and intimidate reporters.
Criminal Charges Amp Up Growing State Resistance to Kalshi
Prediction markets’ rapid growth has triggered a jurisdictional clash as state regulators and attorneys general escalate civil and criminal actions against platforms.
Polymarket Seeks Chief Risk Officer After Legal Hiring Spree
Prediction market platform Polymarket is beefing up risk and legal leadership to satisfy CFTC demands as it pushes deeper into regulated US business while rivals also professionalize.
2026 Primary Barometer: Kalshi’s Trending Contracts Signal Major Shifts in Texas and Illinois
2026 Election Odds, Prediction Market Alpha, Kalshi Primary Trading, Texas Senate Odds 2026, Illinois Democratic Primary Forecast, Trump Endorsement Effect.
SEC, CFTC Move to Define Which Digital Assets are Securities
US securities and derivatives regulators jointly issued long-awaited crypto asset guidance, narrowing what counts as a security and signaling they’ll move ahead without waiting for Congress.
Arizona Files Illegal-Gambling Charges Against Predictions Platform Kalshi
Arizona’s criminal case against Kalshi underscores an escalating jurisdictional clash between states and federal regulators.
Macro & Micro Compass - Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political
Colombia’s unexpectedly competitive three-way presidential race heightens investor anxiety, as a fragmented Congress and wary electorate imperil the deep fiscal tightening needed to avoid a confidence crisis.
Trump has undermined the US national security apparatus
Trump’s unchecked rush to war with Iran, enabled by a gutted diplomatic and security apparatus, underscores how weakened institutions are eroding constitutional and practical restraints on US military power.
