Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
What is Prediction Market?
You're watching the news and you're sure you know what's going to happen next — an election result, a central bank decision, whether a blockbuster film will take home the Oscar. You have a view, maybe even a strong one. In a prediction market, that
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Economic Oracles
Prediction markets offer central banks and policymakers a powerful new tool to gauge and influence the economic landscape.
Polymarket Insider-Trading Bet May Have Attracted More Insiders
Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading?
Kalshi reveals insider trading case against editor for MrBeast
Kalshi suspended and fined a MrBeast editor and a California gubernatorial candidate for alleged insider trading, referring both cases to the CFTC as the booming prediction-market industry faces mounting scrutiny over market manipulation.
Dustin Gouker answers our burning questions about prediction markets, emerging verticals
Dustin Gouker is one the most well-known and respected reporters in the gaming industry. He’s spent more than 20 years as a sports journalist, and nearly six heading up content at Catena Media. Today, Dustin writes two of the industry’s hottest newsletters—The Closing Line and Event Horizon—
How Polymarket and Kalshi are gamifying truth
From bettors wagering millions on Jerome Powell’s every word to billion-dollar valuations and mounting legal battles, prediction markets have leapt from fringe experiment to financial juggernaut—blurring the line between truth discovery and high-octane gambling.
Brazil approves first prediction markets as financial securities
As the US gambling industry grapples with the emergence of prediction markets, Brazil financial regulators are opening up to similar event markets. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission, CVM, this week gave a green light to B3 to become the first prediction market operator in Brazil. B3 plans to launch
Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree
Prediction markets show optimism, but momentum signals hidden weakness beneath Bitcoin price. Whale accumulation hides deeper split that could decide Bitcoin’s next major move.
How AI is helping retail traders exploit prediction market 'glitches' to make easy money
A fully automated bot quietly captured micro-arbitrage opportunities on short-term crypto prediction markets, netting nearly $150,000.
Prediction markets want to eat the news
Regulators noticed Polymarket and Kalshi rake in cash on sports bets. So now prediction markets are cosplaying as the future of news.
