Macroeconomics
Micro & Macro Compass - FOMC Minutes Reveal a Feedback Loop That Could Put Another Rate Hike Back on the Table
The Fed held rates while markets tightened around expectations of future hikes. July’s FOMC minutes show why this logic could ultimately force policymakers to hike.
Housing's Rate Problem Is Still Here, But the Cracks Aren't Everywhere
July housing starts plunged 12.4% while permits gained 5%. High rates are squeezing big-ticket, debt-dependent projects, but smaller jobs and Pro demand are keeping home improvement grounded.
Macro & Micro Compass - July CPI Cooled. Will the Fed Still Hike in September?
Headline CPI eased to 3.4%, core to 2.5%, both in line. Three hawkish dissents and a wobbling labor market keep September a two-way bet.
Macro & Micro Compass - Southern Europe’s Structural Decoupling: A Macroeconomic Reassessment for Institutional Capital
The macroeconomic paradigm within the eurozone has structurally inverted. While the traditional Franco-German core faces industrial stagnation—with 2026 GDP growth forecasts capped at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively—Southern Europe is now driving regional expansion. Spain (2.1%), Portugal (2.0%), and Greece (1.8%) are demonstrating
Macro & Micro Compass - The July ISM Breakdown: Are Business Costs Starting to Rise Again?
Businesses entered Q3 with stronger orders and higher costs, but little appetite to hire. July’s ISM data points to the next pressure on prices and margins.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Faces Close Call as Inflation Pressures Revive Rate-Hike Debate
Federal Reserve officials will enter this week’s policy meeting facing a renewed surge in price pressures, making the decision over whether to hold or raise interest rates unusually close — and potentially contentious.
Macro & Micro Compass - Two Consumers, One GDP Print: Here’s What to Expect From July 30 GDP and PCE Releases
Retail sales rose just 0.2% in June, but the gap between resilient headline data and squeezed households is widening. What to watch in the July 30 GDP and PCE releases.
Breaking News - US CPI Falls for the First Time Since 2020
US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Breaking News - Asia Economy China exports in June jump at fastest pace since 2021 as AI boom, tariff rush lift trade
China’s trade growth accelerated far more than expected in June, as booming global demand for AI hardware and a rush by U.S. retailers to beat anticipated tariff hikes turbocharged shipments.
Rules & Mandates - Insight of the Rebuild: Venezuela’s Economic Recovery vs. Global Capital Constraints
Why people focus on a V-shaped Venezuelan oil recovery are mispricing global liquidity, crowding-out effects, and Big Tech’s capital monopoly.
Macro & Micro Compass - $1.7 Trillion in Factories, 75,000 Fewer Jobs: What the Market Is Missing on Reshoring
Manufacturing investment is at record highs, but hiring isn't following. A look at the ISM, BLS, and robotics data behind reshoring's real jobs story.
Macro & Micro Compass - Can Trump Bend the Fed Before the Data Does?
The next fight over the Federal Reserve is no longer just about inflation, jobs, or the timing of the next rate move. It is also becoming a test of how much political pressure markets believe the Fed can absorb. Will Trump materially reshape the Fed before his current term? Yes,
