News
Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say
Markets now see a 40% chance of stagflation versus just 21% for a soft landing, reflecting fading economic optimism.
Virtu Starts Trading on Kalshi as Event Bets Draw in Wall Street
Institutional market-makers like Virtu Financial are entering prediction markets, legitimizing them as a new asset class despite ongoing regulatory and legal uncertainties.
Trump to announce tariff truce extension, aircraft purchases from Boeing in China, traders predict
Prediction markets are pricing specific diplomatic outcomes from the Trump-Xi meeting, from Boeing orders to tariff extensions, as geopolitical events become financialized.
Polymarket Trading Volume Declines for First Time Since August
Polymarket's operational stumbles and first volume drop in eight months highlight its struggle to maintain momentum as rival Kalshi surges ahead.
Traders will soon be able to bet on computer chip prices as AI drives costs skyward
Compute futures let traders hedge AI investments against volatile GPU prices in the booming artificial intelligence buildout.
Kalshi Judge Predicts Tribe Will Win Block on Sports Contracts
A federal judge's ruling signals tribal nations may gain regulatory leverage over prediction markets under IGRA, challenging Kalshi's federal oversight argument.
A $400 AI Bet That’s Actually a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work
AI is already boosting US productivity, but its long-term impact on jobs remains uncertain and potentially disruptive.
Bitcoin ETFs Add $467M in a Single Day as BTC Reclaims the $81,000 Resistance Level - $85,000 Next?
On May 5, US spot Bitcoin ETFs gained $467.38 million in net inflows. This is the fourth day of net inflows and shows that the institutional interest in BTC is now rising. Amid all this, the price of BTC has been soaring. In fact, it went past the $81,
Trust the Numbers? What to Do When the Data Is Under Attack
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a squeeze between political pressure on official data and the rise of alternative metrics, forcing him to defend statistical neutrality.
Prediction Market Ban for US House Members, Staff Gets GOP Push
Congress moves to ban members from trading on prediction markets, targeting a new ethics loophole after similar Senate action.
Polymarket anonymity must end
Crypto prediction markets' anonymity enables manipulation like insider trading and wash trading, requiring KYC verification to build trust and gain regulatory approval.
Kalshi Secures $22 Billion Valuation in Coatue-Led Round
Prediction market platforms are seeing valuations surge as trading volumes grow, with Kalshi doubling to $22B amid intense investor interest.
