Politics
South Korea Probes Polymarket for Potential Gambling Violations
Prediction markets face expanding regulatory scrutiny as platforms like Polymarket clash with strict national gambling laws despite their growth.
Polymarket Is Said to Seek Japan Market Approval in Global Push
Polymarket is pushing to enter Japan's restrictive gambling market by 2030, betting on regulatory approval amid global legal and competitive pressures.
Rules & Mandates - SEC Chief Atkins Pumps the Brakes on Prediction-Market Funds
SEC delays prediction-market ETFs, signaling caution about stretching the $15T wrapper to event contracts despite industry's push for novel products.
Kalshi, Polymarket Defy India Ban on Online Betting Platforms
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi defy India's gambling ban, testing global regulatory limits as they expand.
Rules & Mandates - Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
Nvidia earnings call drama: Will Jensen Huang talk 'Trump' and China chips after Xi summit?
Prediction markets are using Nvidia's earnings call to wager on geopolitical risks, from Trump mentions to tariffs and Taiwan tensions.
Rules & Mandates - Trump to announce tariff truce extension, aircraft purchases from Boeing in China, traders predict
Prediction markets are pricing specific diplomatic outcomes from the Trump-Xi meeting, from Boeing orders to tariff extensions, as geopolitical events become financialized.
Weekly Casserole - Cerebras IPO, US-China Talk Kick-Off in Seoul, Jensen Huang’s Last-Minute Invite, Alibaba/Tencent Results and more — Fueling another Rally or Forging a Rivalry?
AI is pivoting toward a "transactional infrastructure" phase, where the focus has shifted from general AI hype to the specific mechanics of deployment and trade. In the semiconductor space, capital is aggressively chasing inference-specialized hardware to solve the high-latency bottlenecks currently stalling real-time AI applications.
Kalshi Judge Predicts Tribe Will Win Block on Sports Contracts
A federal judge's ruling signals tribal nations may gain regulatory leverage over prediction markets under IGRA, challenging Kalshi's federal oversight argument.
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Macro & Micro Compass - Trust the Numbers? What to Do When the Data Is Under Attack
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a squeeze between political pressure on official data and the rise of alternative metrics, forcing him to defend statistical neutrality.
Prediction Market Ban for US House Members, Staff Gets GOP Push
Congress moves to ban members from trading on prediction markets, targeting a new ethics loophole after similar Senate action.
