Regulatory
Spotify Verifies Streaming Manipulation After Malcolm Todd’s Suspicious Numbers
A Kalshi-Spotify incident shows how settlement based on the first print can reward temporary manipulation.
In Japan, A New Type of Prediction Market is Taking Advantages of the Loophole in Gambling Regulations
From the rapidly developing point based prediction applications in Japan, we can see the demand for event forecasting is spreading into Asia. The business model is rely on the loyalty points, regulatory arbitrage and advertising, which differs from the trading fee as commonly known. Will Japan formally regulate prediction markets
Fable 5 Shutdown Was Never About the Jailbreak
On June 9, Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, an AI model that comfortably beat OpenAI’s GPT 5.5 on agentic-coding benchmarks by more than twenty points. However, the revolutionary model’s shelf life was only fleeting! At around 5:21 p.m, eastern time, Friday, June 12, the
Global Chokepoint - Ukraine Peace Deal Odds: The Market May Be Misreading the Word "Deal"
Polymarket gives a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 only a 28% chance, but the market rules leave room for a ceasefire or roadmap. Is this enough for a repricing?
CFTC sues Kentucky over actions against prediction markets, making it first red state to face federal scrutiny
The CFTC's suit against Kentucky underscores a growing federal-state clash over regulating prediction markets as swaps versus gambling.
Cboe Revives Binary Options to Compete with Kalshi, Polymarket
Cboe reenters prediction markets with binary options, targeting retail traders after success of its short-dated contracts.
We Investigated Polymarket’s Deceptive Marketing Campaign. Here’s What We Found.
Polymarket, banned in the U.S., employs deceptive social media campaigns to attract American users, risking regulatory scrutiny.
US Traders’ Access to Foreign Platforms Draws Scrutiny From CFTC
The US derivatives regulator is launching its first formal review of foreign trading platforms since 2008 to assess risk management and may require some to register.
World Cup Exposes Growing Global Rift Over Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket face global regulatory crackdowns as their explosive growth collides with gambling and securities law concerns.
The Proposed Rules for Kalshi and Polymarket Are Backward
The CFTC's proposal for provisional prediction market contracts swaps clear standards for subjective "public interest" reviews, undermining the markets' ability to aggregate dispersed information.
Commodity Desk - The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
Polymarket Traders Clash Over $345 Million Iran Peace Market
Prediction markets struggle to resolve bets on ambiguous real-world events, exposing vulnerabilities in decentralized dispute mechanisms like UMA.
