News
We Investigated Polymarket’s Deceptive Marketing Campaign. Here’s What We Found.
Polymarket, banned in the U.S., employs deceptive social media campaigns to attract American users, risking regulatory scrutiny.
Is the UN’s Old Power Map Starting to Break?
A Routine Vote With an Unusual Signal The latest United Nations Security Council election was not just a routine diplomatic vote. It might be a warning sign. On June 3, the UN General Assembly elected Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, Zimbabwe, and Kyrgyzstan to serve as non-permanent members of
Global Chokepoint - Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
The fragile reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces multifaceted challenges, from mines and attacks to unclear authority, making a swift return to prewar energy flows slow and uncertain.
US Traders’ Access to Foreign Platforms Draws Scrutiny From CFTC
The US derivatives regulator is launching its first formal review of foreign trading platforms since 2008 to assess risk management and may require some to register.
Race to Turn AI Compute Into a Commodity Spurs New Crypto Boom
Crypto firms are repurposing their trading infrastructure to build financial markets around AI computing power, treating it as an emerging commodity.
World Cup Exposes Growing Global Rift Over Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket face global regulatory crackdowns as their explosive growth collides with gambling and securities law concerns.
The Proposed Rules for Kalshi and Polymarket Are Backward
The CFTC's proposal for provisional prediction market contracts swaps clear standards for subjective "public interest" reviews, undermining the markets' ability to aggregate dispersed information.
Trader Loses $1 Million on Cabo Verde’s Stunning World Cup Tie
Prediction markets expose users to massive losses on seemingly certain bets, as highlighted by a near-$1 million loss on Cabo Verde's stunning World Cup draw.
Commodity Desk - The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
Polymarket Traders Clash Over $345 Million Iran Peace Market
Prediction markets struggle to resolve bets on ambiguous real-world events, exposing vulnerabilities in decentralized dispute mechanisms like UMA.
Kalshi Builds AI Agent to Stress-Test Prediction Market Bets
Kalshi uses an internal AI agent to manage complex prediction market contract wording, reflecting a trend of startups automating high-stakes tasks.
Macro & Micro Compass - Yen Short Bets Jump to Nine-Year High as Carry Trade Revives
Speculators are betting heavily against the yen, reviving the carry trade as a persistent interest rate gap with the US makes intervention risks seem manageable.
