Politics
Macro & Micro Compass - Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political
Colombia’s unexpectedly competitive three-way presidential race heightens investor anxiety, as a fragmented Congress and wary electorate imperil the deep fiscal tightening needed to avoid a confidence crisis.
Trump has undermined the US national security apparatus
Trump’s unchecked rush to war with Iran, enabled by a gutted diplomatic and security apparatus, underscores how weakened institutions are eroding constitutional and practical restraints on US military power.
CFTC Offers First Guidance on Manipulation in Prediction Markets
CFTC moved slightly to tighten oversight of booming prediction markets, urging pre-launch consultation on risky contracts and launching rulemaking to assert its authority over sports and geopolitical bets.
Prediction Markets Picked Texas Democratic Primary Winner But Missed on GOP Race
Texas’s Senate primaries underscore how liquid prediction markets can sometimes outpace traditional polls in gauging election outcomes, yet still misfire in complex, high-profile races.
Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
Rules & Mandates - Brazil approves first prediction markets as financial securities
As the US gambling industry grapples with the emergence of prediction markets, Brazil financial regulators are opening up to similar event markets. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission, CVM, this week gave a green light to B3 to become the first prediction market operator in Brazil. B3 plans to launch
Trump Promises UFO Files Release—Prediction Market Odds On Aliens Climb
Trump vows to declassify UFO files after sparring with Obama, sending “alien disclosure” odds surging on prediction markets despite Pentagon skepticism.
Sports Leagues Warm To Prediction Markets After Federal Backing
With federal regulators suddenly willing to defend prediction markets, major US sports leagues are quietly softening their opposition in a pivot that closely mirrors their historic, lucrative embrace of sports contracts.
CFTC Faces More Pushback From States Over Prediction Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is facing opposition from states over its bid to be the sole regulator of prediction markets.
Wall Street Wants to Bring Election Bets Into Brokerage Accounts
Roundhill Investments has asked the US Securities and Exchange Commission for permission to launch six ETFs that would let investors wager on US election outcomes through standard brokerage accounts — the most ambitious attempt yet to bring prediction markets into mainstream finance. The proposed exchange-traded funds, disclosed in a filing
Rules & Mandates - CFTC defends its right to prediction market enforcement as states challenge platforms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency has filed an amicus brief in federal court to assert its authority over prediction market enforcement and regulation.
