The Proposed Rules for Kalshi and Polymarket Are Backward
The CFTC's proposal for provisional prediction market contracts swaps clear standards for subjective "public interest" reviews, undermining the markets' ability to aggregate dispersed information.
Trader Loses $1 Million on Cabo Verde’s Stunning World Cup Tie
Prediction markets expose users to massive losses on seemingly certain bets, as highlighted by a near-$1 million loss on Cabo Verde's stunning World Cup draw.
Polymarket Traders Clash Over $345 Million Iran Peace Market
Prediction markets struggle to resolve bets on ambiguous real-world events, exposing vulnerabilities in decentralized dispute mechanisms like UMA.
Kalshi Builds AI Agent to Stress-Test Prediction Market Bets
Kalshi uses an internal AI agent to manage complex prediction market contract wording, reflecting a trend of startups automating high-stakes tasks.
Yen Short Bets Jump to Nine-Year High as Carry Trade Revives
Speculators are betting heavily against the yen, reviving the carry trade as a persistent interest rate gap with the US makes intervention risks seem manageable.
CFTC Floats Prediction Market Rule to Crack Down on War Bets
The CFTC moves to assert jurisdiction over surging prediction markets by proposing to ban bets on war and terrorism while permitting most sports contracts.
Bond Trader Positioning Signals Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming Fast
Bond traders aggressively pile into positions targeting multiple near-term Fed rate hikes after a strong jobs report, setting up volatility ahead of key inflation data.
Kalshi, Polymarket to Be Targeted in House GOP Stock Ban
House Republicans seek to add restrictions on lawmakers' prediction market bets to their stock trading ban bill, citing insider trading risks.
George Santos’ Kalshi Bets About Himself Spark Insider Trading Investigation
The surge in prediction markets has triggered increased regulatory investigations and platform actions over insider trading concerns.
Galaxy Digital Sets Up Prediction Market OTC Derivatives Desk
Crypto finance conglomerate Galaxy Digital has launched a trading desk to offer large investors better access to prediction markets.
CFTC Awards Five Whistleblowers $8 Million for Enforcement Tips
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will award more than $8 million to five whistleblowers who provided information that helped agency investigators recover funds for defrauded investors. The Wall Street regulator didn’t identify the tipsters or the scheme they flagged, but said the individuals helped the agency
Google Engineer Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket
Prediction markets face growing insider-trading risks as cases like the Google engineer's Polymarket bets highlight vulnerabilities.
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