Insight
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
Federal Preemption or State Sovereignty? A Legal Analysis and Prospective Assessment of Kalshi v. Nevada
Kalshi and Nevada clash over jurisdiction—federal law vs. state gambling rules. It now comes down to how nine Supreme Court justices read the statute.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
Kalshi, Polymarket Founders Back New Prediction Market VC Fund
A new $35 million venture fund, 5c(c) Capital, backed by prediction-market rivals Kalshi and Polymarket and top VCs, signals growing institutional confidence in regulated betting exchanges.
Trump has undermined the US national security apparatus
Trump’s unchecked rush to war with Iran, enabled by a gutted diplomatic and security apparatus, underscores how weakened institutions are eroding constitutional and practical restraints on US military power.
Women Wanted: Kalshi Pushes to Expand Far Beyond Sport Bets
Prediction market platform Kalshi is pushing beyond male-dominated sports betting to court women with pop culture and politics wagers, aiming to broaden growth and reduce legal vulnerability.
The Wildest Frat Party on Campus? Prediction Markets
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are aggressively courting college students as users and influencers, fueling insider-trading concerns, undisclosed ads and growing alarm over youth gambling risks.
Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
Dustin Gouker answers our burning questions about prediction markets, emerging verticals
Dustin Gouker is one the most well-known and respected reporters in the gaming industry. He’s spent more than 20 years as a sports journalist, and nearly six heading up content at Catena Media. Today, Dustin writes two of the industry’s hottest newsletters—The Closing Line and Event Horizon—
How Polymarket and Kalshi are gamifying truth
From bettors wagering millions on Jerome Powell’s every word to billion-dollar valuations and mounting legal battles, prediction markets have leapt from fringe experiment to financial juggernaut—blurring the line between truth discovery and high-octane gambling.
Polymarket Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 Next Week, But Charts Disagree
Prediction markets show optimism, but momentum signals hidden weakness beneath Bitcoin price. Whale accumulation hides deeper split that could decide Bitcoin’s next major move.
