Insight
UN Secretary-General Race: Grossi Leads, Grynspan Becomes the Most Obvious Repricing Candidate
Rebeca Grynspan is still priced well behind the favorite, yet her reform profile and Security Council path deserve a closer look.
Is the UN’s Old Power Map Starting to Break?
A Routine Vote With an Unusual Signal The latest United Nations Security Council election was not just a routine diplomatic vote. It might be a warning sign. On June 3, the UN General Assembly elected Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, Zimbabwe, and Kyrgyzstan to serve as non-permanent members of
Emmy Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Updated Standings With One Week of Nominations Voting Remaining
The Hollywood Reporter's executive editor of awards coverage offers his latest assessment of 14 categories.
2026 Midterms: Is Polymarket Underpricing a Democratic Sweep?
A look at Polymarket’s 2026 midterm odds, the Democratic sweep market, and whether traders are underpricing Senate risk in a broader anti-GOP backlash.
BTS Boss Arrested, Company Stock Collapsing? The Illusion of HYBE's Prosperity
Behind HYBE’s record revenues and BTS's 2026 comeback lies a sharp crisis.
An Abandoned Football Match and the Fragility of “Final Score”
One abandoned friendly football match became a test of how Polymarket and Kalshi handle messy real-world outcomes.
China is helping to cushion global oil prices below $100 — but analysts warn it won’t last
China's crude import cuts have cushioned oil prices during the Iran war, yet analysts warn higher prices are needed to rebuild depleted inventories.
When Evidence Arrives Late: The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale
When truth arrives late, prediction markets reveal a deeper problem: are traders betting on events, evidence, or the rulebook?
When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula
Prediction markets are gaining institutional traction, but their forecasting reliability is hampered by low liquidity and ambiguous contract design.
There’s Still Time to Make Prediction Markets Useful
Deregulation has fueled a prediction market boom, but the resulting sports-dominated platforms now face a reckoning over whether they are gambling or socially useful forecasting tools.
Traders will soon be able to bet on computer chip prices as AI drives costs skyward
Compute futures let traders hedge AI investments against volatile GPU prices in the booming artificial intelligence buildout.
A $400 AI Bet That’s Actually a High-Stakes Wager on the Future of Work
AI is already boosting US productivity, but its long-term impact on jobs remains uncertain and potentially disruptive.
