Analysis
Bad Behavior Is Moving Markets. Where Are the Regulators?
Lax oversight of prediction markets and traditional assets fuels insider trading risks, eroding investor trust in market integrity.
Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Nine Crypto Whales Dominate Polymarket Disputes Worth Billions
Polymarket's decentralized dispute system has concentrated power in nine wallets, undermining its credibility as a truth machine and raising market integrity risks.
When are prediction markets most helpful? Evercore ISI has a formula
Prediction markets are gaining institutional traction, but their forecasting reliability is hampered by low liquidity and ambiguous contract design.
Short sellers reap more than $2.3bn profit betting against gambling companies
Hedge funds are capitalizing on online gambling stocks' decline, driven by US prediction market growth and UK tax hikes.
Polymarket Is Said to Seek Japan Market Approval in Global Push
Polymarket is pushing to enter Japan's restrictive gambling market by 2030, betting on regulatory approval amid global legal and competitive pressures.
SEC Chief Atkins Pumps the Brakes on Prediction-Market Funds
SEC delays prediction-market ETFs, signaling caution about stretching the $15T wrapper to event contracts despite industry's push for novel products.
OpenAI takes the lead in AI IPO horse race: 'Getting to public markets first is very important'
OpenAI's reported imminent IPO filing has sharply reversed prediction market odds, positioning it to beat Anthropic in the race to become the first major AI company to go public.
Massive Options Bet Rattles Oil Market On Edge Over Iran War
A massive, unexplained Brent crude options trade is amplifying market jitters and integrity concerns amid geopolitical volatility and regulatory scrutiny.
Polymarket Deepens Push to Allow Bets on Value of Hot Startups
Polymarket's Nasdaq Private Market partnership expands contracts on unlisted companies, tapping retail investor demand for pre-IPO exposure amid regulatory gray areas.
Kalshi, Polymarket Defy India Ban on Online Betting Platforms
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi defy India's gambling ban, testing global regulatory limits as they expand.
Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
