Analysis
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
Trust the Numbers? What to Do When the Data Is Under Attack
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a squeeze between political pressure on official data and the rise of alternative metrics, forcing him to defend statistical neutrality.
Polymarket anonymity must end
Crypto prediction markets' anonymity enables manipulation like insider trading and wash trading, requiring KYC verification to build trust and gain regulatory approval.
Kalshi Secures $22 Billion Valuation in Coatue-Led Round
Prediction market platforms are seeing valuations surge as trading volumes grow, with Kalshi doubling to $22B amid intense investor interest.
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Underdog Hires Former Head of Crypto.com Prediction Exchange
Underdog's hiring of a Crypto.com veteran and acquisition of CFTC licenses signals a strategic push to dominate the sports prediction market amid regulatory battles.
Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Kalshi Grilled by Massachusetts High Court Over What Gambling Is
Massachusetts' top court scrutinizes Kalshi's claim that prediction markets are financial swaps, not gambling, in a case testing state vs. federal regulatory authority.
Clear Street Signs Up to Kalshi in Prediction Markets Push
Prediction markets are gaining institutional legitimacy through partnerships like Clear Street and Kalshi, bridging retail popularity with Wall Street sophistication.
CFTC Reviews Trader Data Report as Kalshi Expands in Commodities
The CFTC is reviewing its key trader-position reports as prediction markets like Kalshi expand into commodities, creating a regulatory gap in data transparency.
Kalshi, Polymarket Face New Rival in Crypto’s Hottest Exchange
Hyperliquid's expansion into prediction markets challenges Kalshi and Polymarket by leveraging its integrated multi-asset platform to blur the lines between derivatives and event trading.
US soldier pleads not guilty over prediction trades on Maduro capture
A US soldier's insider-trading case on Polymarket emerges as an early legal test for regulating the rapidly growing prediction markets.
