Economics & Finance
Macro & Micro Compass - BOJ Lifts Rates to 1%: The End of Japan’s Ultra-Low-Rate Era?
The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to around 1.0%, with the decision approved by a 7–1 majority. The complementary deposit facility rate will also rise to 1.0%, while the basic loan rate increases to 1.25%. The new guideline takes effect from June 17,
Commodity Desk - The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks have fallen to a 40-year low following massive releases to counter Iran war disruptions, heightening risks of a price spike.
Polymarket Traders Clash Over $345 Million Iran Peace Market
Prediction markets struggle to resolve bets on ambiguous real-world events, exposing vulnerabilities in decentralized dispute mechanisms like UMA.
Global Chokepoint - Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal as soon as August, Kalshi traders speculate
Prediction markets show surging odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization after Trump's Iran deal announcement, despite lingering uncertainties.
Kalshi Builds AI Agent to Stress-Test Prediction Market Bets
Kalshi uses an internal AI agent to manage complex prediction market contract wording, reflecting a trend of startups automating high-stakes tasks.
Macro & Micro Compass - Yen Short Bets Jump to Nine-Year High as Carry Trade Revives
Speculators are betting heavily against the yen, reviving the carry trade as a persistent interest rate gap with the US makes intervention risks seem manageable.
Reprint: The Latest EU Monetary Policy Decisions
ECB Raises Rates Again as Middle East War Rewrites Europe’s Inflation Outlook Brief Analysis The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 11 June 2026, saying the war in the Middle East is generating new inflation pressure and creating uncertainty around the
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
CFTC Floats Prediction Market Rule to Crack Down on War Bets
The CFTC moves to assert jurisdiction over surging prediction markets by proposing to ban bets on war and terrorism while permitting most sports contracts.
Bond Trader Positioning Signals Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming Fast
Bond traders aggressively pile into positions targeting multiple near-term Fed rate hikes after a strong jobs report, setting up volatility ahead of key inflation data.
Kalshi Plans Workplace Disclosure Rule to Combat Insider Trading
Prediction markets are implementing employment disclosure requirements to combat insider trading amid growing regulatory pressure and high-profile legal cases.
Fly Me to The Moon - Analyzing What Exactly the SpaceX IPO Catalyzes
SpaceX is slated for its initial public offering in June, with the IPO expected to be the largest ever in history, crossing the Aramco IPO which was priced at $1.7 trillion. SpaceX is now targeting a valuation of at least $1.7 trillion with the latest Polymarket predictions pricing
