Economics
Reprint: The Latest EU Monetary Policy Decisions
ECB Raises Rates Again as Middle East War Rewrites Europe’s Inflation Outlook Brief Analysis The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 11 June 2026, saying the war in the Middle East is generating new inflation pressure and creating uncertainty around the
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
Bond Trader Positioning Signals Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming Fast
Bond traders aggressively pile into positions targeting multiple near-term Fed rate hikes after a strong jobs report, setting up volatility ahead of key inflation data.
Traders on Kalshi indicate that May's jobs report will top Wall Street expectations
Traders on Kalshi expect that job creation in May will see a slowdown but still surpass Dow Jones consensus.
Bad Behavior Is Moving Markets. Where Are the Regulators?
Lax oversight of prediction markets and traditional assets fuels insider trading risks, eroding investor trust in market integrity.
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Macro & Micro Compass - Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Wall Street Quants See an Edge in Polymarket Earnings Forecasts
Prediction markets are emerging as a surprisingly accurate, potentially faster alternative to Wall Street analysts for forecasting corporate earnings.
Kalshi Expands Commodity Predictions Market Amid War Volatility
Prediction market platform Kalshi is rapidly expanding into commodities contracts as geopolitical turmoil and volatile prices spur investors to use event betting alongside traditional hedging tools.
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada’s ban on Kalshi’s sports and election contracts underscores an escalating clash between state gambling regulators and federal derivatives authorities.
How ‘Irrelevant’ Prediction Market Detail Led to Death Threats
Fast-growing prediction markets are exposing a core weakness as disputed contracts and after-the-fact trading create incentives to distort information and intimidate reporters.
