Economics
Kalshi Does No Better Than Experts on Key Jobs Forecasting Test
Prediction markets have yet to outperform traditional economists on crucial U.S. jobs data, challenging their promise of superior crowd-sourced accuracy.
Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Wall Street Quants See an Edge in Polymarket Earnings Forecasts
Prediction markets are emerging as a surprisingly accurate, potentially faster alternative to Wall Street analysts for forecasting corporate earnings.
Kalshi Expands Commodity Predictions Market Amid War Volatility
Prediction market platform Kalshi is rapidly expanding into commodities contracts as geopolitical turmoil and volatile prices spur investors to use event betting alongside traditional hedging tools.
Hormuz Is Not Just an Oil Story - Article 1 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A Hormuz shutdown would not stay in the Gulf. It would spread through fuel, freight, fertilizer, helium, and food.
Kalshi, Polymarket Founders Back New Prediction Market VC Fund
A new $35 million venture fund, 5c(c) Capital, backed by prediction-market rivals Kalshi and Polymarket and top VCs, signals growing institutional confidence in regulated betting exchanges.
Nevada Wins Temporary Ban on Sports Betting on Kalshi
Nevada’s ban on Kalshi’s sports and election contracts underscores an escalating clash between state gambling regulators and federal derivatives authorities.
Polymarket’s Latest Pop-Up Is a Sports Bar for Watching the News
Prediction platform Polymarket is courting Washington with a pop-up “Situation Room” bar even as US lawmakers and regulators move to clamp down on the controversial betting industry.
Major League Baseball Steps Into the Prediction Markets, Strikes Deal With Polymarket
MLB is partnering with Polymarket and the CFTC to engage prediction markets while trying to guard against game manipulation.
How ‘Irrelevant’ Prediction Market Detail Led to Death Threats
Fast-growing prediction markets are exposing a core weakness as disputed contracts and after-the-fact trading create incentives to distort information and intimidate reporters.
Criminal Charges Amp Up Growing State Resistance to Kalshi
Prediction markets’ rapid growth has triggered a jurisdictional clash as state regulators and attorneys general escalate civil and criminal actions against platforms.
