Politics
Prediction Markets Picked Texas Democratic Primary Winner But Missed on GOP Race
Texas’s Senate primaries underscore how liquid prediction markets can sometimes outpace traditional polls in gauging election outcomes, yet still misfire in complex, high-profile races.
Iran Strikes Expose the Dark Edge Case of Prediction-Market Era
The weekend's real-world assassination of Khamenei has exposed the severe ethical and legal fault lines in an industry's quest to legitimize betting on geopolitical violence.
Bets on Fate of Iran’s Khamenei Spark Uproar at Leading Prediction Markets
Prediction markets face mounting political and regulatory scrutiny after lucrative bets on Iran’s Khamenei and U.S. strikes raised insider-trading and war-profiteering concerns.
Trump Promises UFO Files Release—Prediction Market Odds On Aliens Climb
Trump vows to declassify UFO files after sparring with Obama, sending “alien disclosure” odds surging on prediction markets despite Pentagon skepticism.
Sports Leagues Warm To Prediction Markets After Federal Backing
With federal regulators suddenly willing to defend prediction markets, major US sports leagues are quietly softening their opposition in a pivot that closely mirrors their historic, lucrative embrace of sports contracts.
CFTC Faces More Pushback From States Over Prediction Markets
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is facing opposition from states over its bid to be the sole regulator of prediction markets.
CFTC defends its right to prediction market enforcement as states challenge platforms
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency has filed an amicus brief in federal court to assert its authority over prediction market enforcement and regulation.
States Encroach on Prediction Markets
The CFTC, the legitimate regulator of these financial instruments, backs Crypto.com in a lawsuit appeal.
CFTC Forms 35 Member Committee Focused On Event Contracts And AI
Committee brings together leaders from prediction markets, sports betting, finance, and blockchain. CEOs from Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, and FanDuel will sit alongside Nasdaq leadership. Group will advise regulators on event contracts, digital assets, and AI influence on trading markets.
Cortez Masto leads Senate Democrats in stand on prediction markets
Senate Democrats challenged CFTC Chair Michael Selig to enforce bans on prediction markets, warning that his regulatory pivot is fueling unregulated gambling on sports and geopolitical conflicts.
