Politics
Global Chokepoint - Hormuz Update - Vessel on fire, caution advised; Iran vows not a ‘single drop’ of oil or gas will pass strait - July 20, 2026
Another vessel allegedly under attack; Iran vows not a ‘single drop’ of oil or gas will pass strait of Hormuz as US carries out ninth night of strikes
Market Rumor - US seeks share of Korean chipmakers' 'excess profits'
The U.S. is seeking a share in Korean semiconductor companies’ enormous profits from the global artificial intelligence (AI) chip boom, citing strong U.S. demand for Korean chips, according to an industry source.
Defense & Aerospace Radar - After the NATO Summit: What's Next for Western Security?
The latest NATO summit ended with familiar headlines: higher defense spending, stronger commitments to collective security, continued support for Ukraine, and new initiatives on defense production and military technology. NATO leaders emphasized that the alliance is moving from setting spending targets to delivering concrete capabilities, including expanded defense industrial cooperation
Dubai plans new port to bypass Strait of Hormuz?
DP World is planning to build a new port and a container terminal on the United Arab Emirates’ east coast that would reduce Dubai’s dependence on its flagship Jebel Ali hub and bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Project to build capacity on UAE’s east coast represents a major shift after US-Iran war.
Global Chokepoint - Trump Drops 20% Fee for Hormuz Cargo After Gulf Pressure
President Donald Trump backed away from his plan to impose a 20% charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after US allies in the Gulf urged him to drop it.
Macro & Micro Compass - Fed Rate-Hike Bets Mount Before Inflation Data, Warsh Testimony
Bond traders ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, ahead of a closely watched US inflation report and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Are Weather Delay Contracts About the Weather or the Officials?
Kalshi’s weather-delay markets reveal a grey area between weather forecasting, sports betting and official discretion.
Defense & Aerospace Radar - US Defense Backlog Growth Looks Bullish. Manufacturing Capacity Says Otherwise
Defense contractors keep winning, but the industrial base keeps losing time. A look at the budget data and what the market isn't pricing in on defense.
Consumer Pulse - Sold Out, Soon Illegal: Inside China's AC Export Boom
Chinese air conditioners keep flying off European shelves, but the product driving this year's boom won't legally exist in Europe by 2029. Here’s what the market isn't pricing in on the China AC trade.
Polymarket Is Back in the U.S. But the Bigger Story Is What Comes Next
For more than three years, Polymarket operated outside the U.S. after settling charges with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in early 2022. It changed when Polymarket acquired CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse QCX, giving it a legal pathway back into the American market. Since then, Polymarket
Breaking News - China to Allow Top AI Firms to Buy Nvidia H200 Chips
China is planning to allow the country's leading AI companies to purchase a limited number of Nvidia's H200 AI chips, according to The Information, citing two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The Bonds Hidden Inside Prediction Markets
Prediction markets start as probability markets. Near certainty, some of them quietly become more like bond markets.
