Politics
Beyond the Headline Odds: How Colombia’s Election Markets Fit Together
Linked Colombia presidential election markets reveal one implied election path, and a hidden runoff assumption behind the headline odds.
Polymarket, Kalshi Face Spanish Ban
Spain moves to block prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, highlighting growing regulatory scrutiny of the fast-expanding betting markets.
Polymarket Banned in Indonesia After Bets on Prabowo’s Ouster
Prediction markets face growing global regulatory crackdowns as governments classify them as gambling and move to block access over political and security concerns.
Andy Burnham Is the Favourite. That Does Not Make Him Inevitable
Burnham may be Labour’s strongest replacement, but markets are pricing a coronation before he clears the institutional gates in the parliament.
Trump to announce tariff truce extension, aircraft purchases from Boeing in China, traders predict
Prediction markets are pricing specific diplomatic outcomes from the Trump-Xi meeting, from Boeing orders to tariff extensions, as geopolitical events become financialized.
Cerebras IPO, US-China Talk Kick-Off in Seoul, Jensen Huang’s Last-Minute Invite, Alibaba/Tencent Results and more — Fueling another Rally or Forging a Rivalry?
AI is pivoting toward a "transactional infrastructure" phase, where the focus has shifted from general AI hype to the specific mechanics of deployment and trade. In the semiconductor space, capital is aggressively chasing inference-specialized hardware to solve the high-latency bottlenecks currently stalling real-time AI applications. Meanwhile, the upcoming
Brazil’s First-Round Outright-Win Market: Polarization Is Not Consolidation
Brazil’s first-round market prices polarization as consolidation. The rules, polling, and history suggest that premium looks too high.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
Mandelson Vetting Fiasco Leaves Starmer Looking Like Lame Duck
Keir Starmer's authority is eroding under the weight of the Mandelson scandal, leaving him politically vulnerable ahead of crucial local elections.
Polymarket Bets on Orban Loss Jump Further as Hungarians Vote
Crypto prediction market Polymarket is betting heavily on opposition leader Peter Magyar ousting Viktor Orban as Hungary’s next prime minister, with implied odds topping 80%.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
How the Market Misread the Illinois Democrats Primary, and What to Watch Next Time
Illinois showed how prediction markets can misprice primaries by betting on cash and big names while voters reward real coalitions.
