Analysis
Let Candidates Place Bets on Themselves — at Least Sometimes
Prediction markets banning candidates from betting on their own races raises questions about whether such wagers truly threaten electoral integrity or merely signal confidence.
Most Prediction Market Traders Are Losing Money While Bots Rack Up Gains
Prediction markets are promoted as a side hustle, but data shows most retail traders lose money as automated bots capture profits.
Business school professors’ picks: discussion on Prediction Market
Prediction markets are scaling rapidly, but concerns over financial exploitation and regulatory gaps challenge their legitimacy.
Insider Trading Cases Threaten Reckoning for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets boom amid insider trading allegations, triggering White House skepticism and heightened regulatory scrutiny.
Brazil Blocks Polymarket, Kalshi Over ‘Illegal Betting’
Brazil blocks prediction markets like Polymarket, joining a global regulatory pushback against platforms accused of operating as unlicensed gambling.
France Probes Weather Data Glitch After Surge in Polymarket Bets
Prediction markets are booming, raising concerns about manipulation of critical data like airport weather sensors used for betting settlements.
California’s Billionaire Tax Looks Strong - Until You Look Closer
Strong polls make California’s billionaire tax look tempting. But the market may still be overpricing how easily “Yes” survives November.
AI Pioneers Back Startup Building Models to Predict Events
AI forecasting startups like Sooth Labs emerge amid prediction market boom, offering businesses new tools for geopolitical and market risk assessment.
Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback
Polymarket's disruptive, crypto-native strategy is hindering its US expansion, allowing the more regulator-friendly rival Kalshi to overtake it in trading volume and valuation.
Prediction Markets Ramp Up Washington Lobbying to Stop US Rules
Prediction markets are ramping up lobbying to fight congressional efforts to regulate them as gambling and curb insider trading risks.
Do Hormuz Event Contracts Actually Hedge Anything? - Article 3 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
Testing when Kalshi and Polymarket contracts hedge real commodity exposure, and when they do not.
Schwab Considering Prediction Markets Linked to Finance Events
Charles Schwab is weighing launching finance-linked prediction markets as rivals push into the space, signaling mainstream brokerages may cautiously embrace betting-style tools while shunning pure gambling.
