Analysis
Wall Street Quants See an Edge in Polymarket Earnings Forecasts
Prediction markets are emerging as a surprisingly accurate, potentially faster alternative to Wall Street analysts for forecasting corporate earnings.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle Sets the Baseline — Can Part 2 Break It?
As Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba enters its final arc, the first installment of the Infinity Castle saga is beginning to provide a new benchmark for the franchise's commercial performance. According to data from Kogyo Tsushin and Box Office Mojo, the film continues to demonstrate strong global demand.
Kalshi Expands Commodity Predictions Market Amid War Volatility
Prediction market platform Kalshi is rapidly expanding into commodities contracts as geopolitical turmoil and volatile prices spur investors to use event betting alongside traditional hedging tools.
Trading Fame: How Prediction Markets Are Redefining Celebrity Equity
Pop culture is undergoing a radical evolution. It’s shifting from a side-hustle category on betting platforms into a sophisticated engine of social data where value is being completely restructured. From Discrete Events to Liquid Assets: The Financialization of Anne Hathaway’s 2026 As we cruise through 2026, the financialization
Robinhood excludes some prediction markets over manipulation fears
Robinhood is aggressively expanding into prediction markets but is excluding riskier contracts such as “mention markets” amid mounting concerns over manipulation, insider trading and regulatory scrutiny.
Kalshi Wins Reprieve From Arizona Criminal Case at CFTC’s Urging
A federal judge temporarily halted Arizona’s criminal case against prediction market Kalshi after the CFTC argued state prosecutions unlawfully encroach on federal authority over derivatives markets.
What Exactly Is a Hormuz Bet? - Article 2 of the Hormuz Series, March 2026
A guide to Hormuz contract design, market structure, and why 7 days is more meaningful than 2 or 14.
Weather Prediction Markets Are Booming. Can They Improve Forecasts?
Weather-focused prediction markets are rapidly expanding from niche bets to tools for testing AI models and pricing climate risk, promising sharper forecasts but raising concerns over manipulation and social value.
The big state gamble on prediction markets
Prediction markets such as Kalshi are forcing a high-stakes showdown between state gambling laws and the CFTC’s claim of exclusive federal oversight over event-based derivatives.
Singapore Minister Says Worst Case on War Not Fully Priced
Singapore warns that markets remain complacent about the Iran war’s impact as Strait of Hormuz disruptions threaten Asia’s energy security, inflation, and growth.
Kalshi Win in New Jersey Fight Hailed as Big Victory Over States
A US appeals court ruling that Kalshi falls under CFTC oversight strengthens federal authority over fast-growing prediction markets, but a sharp dissent signals continuing state–federal clashes over gambling regulation.
Prediction markets: the hunt for the new ‘dumb money’
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are drawing a wave of Gen Z retail bettors, but data show most lose money while a tiny, sophisticated minority captures the gains.
