Macro & Micro Compass
Macro & Micro Compass - Can Trump Bend the Fed Before the Data Does?
The next fight over the Federal Reserve is no longer just about inflation, jobs, or the timing of the next rate move. It is also becoming a test of how much political pressure markets believe the Fed can absorb. Will Trump materially reshape the Fed before his current term? Yes,
Macro & Micro Compass - June Jobs Miss: How Will It Affect the Interest Rate Cycle?
The June jobs report gave markets a softer labor signal than the headline unemployment rate suggests.
Macro & Micro Compass - June NFP Report: Stability Is Priced In, But Is It Fully Supported by the Data?
Markets are pricing June NFP around 100,000-150,000 jobs, reflecting economist forecasts and recent labor data, as attention turns to how incoming prints align with current expectations.
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Says 5% Unemployment Is Still a Long Shot, but the Next Jobs Data Could Test That
Polymarket traders see 5% unemployment as a long shot, but weaker hiring, rising duration, and the next jobs report could challenge the 17% price.
Macro & Micro Compass - BOJ Lifts Rates to 1%: The End of Japan’s Ultra-Low-Rate Era?
The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to around 1.0%, with the decision approved by a 7–1 majority. The complementary deposit facility rate will also rise to 1.0%, while the basic loan rate increases to 1.25%. The new guideline takes effect from June 17,
Macro & Micro Compass - Yen Short Bets Jump to Nine-Year High as Carry Trade Revives
Speculators are betting heavily against the yen, reviving the carry trade as a persistent interest rate gap with the US makes intervention risks seem manageable.
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Leans Toward an Overheating US Economy, But the Stagflation Trade Is Not Dead Yet
Polymarket traders are leaning toward an overheating US economy in 2026. But sticky inflation, oil risk, and a small rise in unemployment could point to a more uncomfortable outcome.
Macro & Micro Compass - Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say
Markets now see a 40% chance of stagflation versus just 21% for a soft landing, reflecting fading economic optimism.
Macro & Micro Compass - Trust the Numbers? What to Do When the Data Is Under Attack
Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a squeeze between political pressure on official data and the rise of alternative metrics, forcing him to defend statistical neutrality.
Macro & Micro Compass - Is the US Going into a Recession? Odds Hit 25%, but Polymarket Traders May Be Missing the Real Risk
US recession odds are rising on Polymarket, but the 25% trade may not be as simple as it looks. The real risk could be hiding in the fine print.
Macro & Micro Compass - Colombia’s Real Threat Is Not Political
Colombia’s unexpectedly competitive three-way presidential race heightens investor anxiety, as a fragmented Congress and wary electorate imperil the deep fiscal tightening needed to avoid a confidence crisis.
