Economics
Rules & Mandates - Insight of the Rebuild: Venezuela’s Economic Recovery vs. Global Capital Constraints
Why people focus on a V-shaped Venezuelan oil recovery are mispricing global liquidity, crowding-out effects, and Big Tech’s capital monopoly.
Macro & Micro Compass - Federal Reserve Fed officials were split on direction of interest rates at last meeting, minutes show
Fed policymakers were split on the future of interest rates at their June meeting, with officials offering competing cases for hikes or cuts, according to minutes released Wednesday.
Macro & Micro Compass - $1.7 Trillion in Factories, 75,000 Fewer Jobs: What the Market Is Missing on Reshoring
Manufacturing investment is at record highs, but hiring isn't following. A look at the ISM, BLS, and robotics data behind reshoring's real jobs story.
Will the BoE Loosen Bank Leverage Rules to Support the Gilt Market?
The Bank of England(BoE) is going to publish its July Financial Stability Report at 10:30 a.m. (GMT+1) on July 7. There is one issue could have consequences well beyond bank regulation: whether British lenders should be given more room to hold government bonds. The BoE has
Macro & Micro Compass - Can Trump Bend the Fed Before the Data Does?
The next fight over the Federal Reserve is no longer just about inflation, jobs, or the timing of the next rate move. It is also becoming a test of how much political pressure markets believe the Fed can absorb. Will Trump materially reshape the Fed before his current term? Yes,
Macro & Micro Compass - June Jobs Miss: How Will It Affect the Interest Rate Cycle?
The June jobs report gave markets a softer labor signal than the headline unemployment rate suggests.
Rules & Mandates - Avoids Trump's July 4 Tariff Deadline: Why "De-Escalation" Is the Wrong Read
A look at what the EU-US tariff deal actually locks in, why markets are reading it as de-escalation, and why the underlying trade risk hasn't gone away for the companies caught in the middle.
Macro & Micro Compass - June NFP Report: Stability Is Priced In, But Is It Fully Supported by the Data?
Markets are pricing June NFP around 100,000-150,000 jobs, reflecting economist forecasts and recent labor data, as attention turns to how incoming prints align with current expectations.
What a Burnham Premiership Means for UK Stocks
A Burnham premiership would test UK equities through gilts, fiscal credibility and sector-specific policy risk.
Macro & Micro Compass - Polymarket Says 5% Unemployment Is Still a Long Shot, but the Next Jobs Data Could Test That
Polymarket traders see 5% unemployment as a long shot, but weaker hiring, rising duration, and the next jobs report could challenge the 17% price.
Global Chockpoint - When Hormuz Reopens, the Oil Shock May Not Be Over
A peace deal can reopen Hormuz, but fuel markets, refinery bottlenecks and demand will take longer to normalize.
Macro & Micro Compass - BOJ Lifts Rates to 1%: The End of Japan’s Ultra-Low-Rate Era?
The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate to around 1.0%, with the decision approved by a 7–1 majority. The complementary deposit facility rate will also rise to 1.0%, while the basic loan rate increases to 1.25%. The new guideline takes effect from June 17,
